QUE: What is the concept of ‘demographic winter’? Is the world heading towards such a situation? Explain in detail.

‘Demographic winter’ is a concept in which the birth rate (usually 2.1 children per woman) starts to fall below the replacement level, leading to a long-term decline in the population. In this situation, the population starts to age and shrink, leading to economic, social and political problems. The term was first used in the 2000s, describing it as a “population ice age”, where it is closely linked to demography and is often used to describe a period when population growth ‘halts’. This concept is based on the idea that the birth rate is below the birth rate and the population is growing.

•  Key elements of the concept

Fertility decline: The total fertility rate falls below 2.1, which is needed to keep the population stable. This means that each generation has fewer children than the previous generation.

Population growth: The low birth rate and higher life expectancy lead to an increase in the proportion of the elderly population, known as the dependency ratio.

Economic and social impacts: A decline in the workforce, pressure on pensions and health systems, and a slowdown in economic growth.

• Reasons behind this situation

Higher education and female participation: Higher education and higher participation of women in the workforce delay marriage and having children. For example, in Switzerland, among highly educated women 40% are childless.

Economic uncertainty: Most families choose to have fewer children due to inflation, unemployment, and household expenses. The total fertility rate fell due to the economic crisis in Eastern Europe in the 1990s.

Urbanization and modern lifestyle: The need for children in urban areas is reduced, as they do not contribute economically. In addition, the availability of contraception and abortion also reduces the birth rate.

Cultural and social changes: The concept of family is changing in modern times, such as single-parent households and a decrease in religious followers, and birth rates are lower in less religious countries.

Government policies: Policies such as China’s ‘one-child policy’ have had a lasting impact on birth rates.

❖ Is the world heading towards such a situation?

The world is moving towards a ‘demographic winter’ on a large scale, but not evenly. According to the United Nations (UN) and other studies, the global total fertility rate is Declined from 5.0 in 1950 to 2.3 in 2021 and is expected to fall below 2.1 by 2050.

• Global trends

In developed countries: This is already the case in Europe, North America and East Asia. Japan has a total fertility rate of 1.3, while Italy (1.25), Spain (1.3) and South Korea (0.8) are also doing so. In Europe, 10% of the population is over 65 years of age, which is expected to increase to 16% by 2050. In China and India: China has a total fertility rate of 1.2 due to the one-child policy and its population has been declining since 2023. India has a total fertility rate of 2.0 (according to NFHS-5, 2019-21), but according to the Lancet study, it will fall below 1.5 by 2050.

Exceptions: Total fertility rates are still high in Africa and some South Asian countries (e.g. 6.9 in Niger). Africa’s population is expected to double by 2050, which is the main reason for global population growth.

Forecast: According to the UN, the total world population is 8 billion in 2022, which will reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100, but according to the Lancet study, it will drop from 9.7 billion in 2064 to 8.8 billion in 2100. Thus, the population will start to decline after 2050.

• Its possible effects

Economic: Labor force reduction, such as 5.4 lakh fewer workers in Italy by 2040. In addition, pension and health costs will increase.

Social: Due to an aging population, imbalances in society, increased dependence on emigration (e.g. Canada and Australia).

Political: Emigration will increase cultural tensions and policies such as pro-natalist policies (Fiscal incentives in Hungary) will have to be adopted.

Thus, in view of the above situation, governments are currently adopting pro-natalist policies, such as childcare subsidies, parental leave and expatriation. In India too, programs like Mission Parivar Vikas are aimed at keeping the total fertility rate stable. This situation is inevitable to tackle the demographic winter, as it is the last stage of the demographic transition.