Loading...
As monsoon falters, keep food imports open
Maharashtra has declared drought in nearly three-fourths of its tehsils, with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis stating that the situation could be worse than the great famine of 1972. But it isn’t just Maharashtra. India overall has reported rainfall at 11.9 per cent below the historical average during the current southwest monsoon season from June 1 to September 27. Also, 23 of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions have recorded cumulative deficits in excess of 10 per cent. The southern states, Maharashtra’s Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch and the Northeast are the worst-hit. On the whole, rainfall was markedly deficient in June and August, and has been concentrated in a few regions: Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. That makes for a rather skewed temporal and spatial distribution.
El Niño has entered a strong phase. Global climate models point to its becoming “very strong” in October through January-February, before gradually receding into a moderate-to-weak event towards April-May. El Niño’s impact on the monsoon has been felt since August. There will be some effect of that on the kharif yields, even if their acreage hasn’t fallen much. The real brunt will be borne by the crops grown during the upcoming rabi (winter-spring) season. Deficit monsoon rains may leave little water in wells, ponds, reservoirs or underground aquifers. That, plus the prospect of a relatively warm and short winter (El Niño is known to suppress rainfall as well as raise temperatures), could translate into a poor rabi harvest on top of a not-so-great kharif.
Overall Analysis
The editorial examines the likely impact of a deficient and uneven monsoon on India’s agricultural production and food security. The author begins with Maharashtra’s drought situation and then broadens the discussion to the national level, using rainfall statistics to establish that the problem is not confined to one State.
The opening paragraph is largely fact-based and analytical. The writer uses figures such as “11.9 per cent below the historical average” and “23 of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions” to demonstrate the seriousness of the rainfall deficit. The geographical references to different regions show that the problem is not merely about insufficient rainfall but also about its uneven spatial and temporal distribution. The expression “skewed temporal and spatial distribution” effectively summarises this imbalance.
The second paragraph moves from the present situation to its possible consequences. The author introduces El Niño as an important climatic factor and explains how it can affect agricultural output. The writing follows a clear cause-and-effect structure: strong El Niño → weaker monsoon → lower water availability → greater pressure on rabi crops → potentially poor agricultural output.
The author makes an important distinction between kharif and rabi crops. While kharif production may suffer to some extent, the editorial suggests that the greater impact could be on the upcoming rabi season because deficient rainfall may leave insufficient water in wells, reservoirs and aquifers. The phrase “the real brunt will be borne” gives the sentence greater emphasis and conveys that the rabi season could face the more serious consequences.
The editorial also uses conditional language such as “could translate into”, which is significant from a language perspective. Rather than presenting the future harvest as a certainty, the writer presents it as a possible consequence based on existing climatic conditions. This makes the argument analytical rather than purely alarmist.
The title, “keep food imports open,” points towards the larger policy implication: if domestic agricultural production is threatened by poor rainfall, India should retain flexibility to import food and prevent supply shortages or excessive price increases. Thus, the editorial moves from climate data → agricultural risk → food-security concern → policy response.
Important Vocabulary — 5
- Falter – to become weaker or less effective; to lose strength.
- Deficit – a shortage or amount by which something falls below the required or expected level.
- Cumulative – increasing or building up as successive amounts are added.
- Brunt – the main or most severe impact of something.
- Aquifer – an underground layer of rock or soil that stores and carries groundwater.
Conclusion & Tone
Conclusion: The editorial warns that deficient and uneven monsoon rainfall, combined with a strong El Niño, could adversely affect India’s agricultural output, particularly the upcoming rabi crop. The resulting pressure on food supply makes it important to maintain the option of food imports so that shortages and price pressures can be managed.
