Turn potential double-whammy of rain and fertiliser shortfall into an opportunity

India’s farm sector grew by 4.2 per cent in 2024-25 and 3.2 per cent in 2025-26 on the back of two good monsoon years. Rainfall for the country as a whole was 104 per cent of its long period average (LPA) in 2024 and 110 per cent in 2025, with the southwest monsoon season (June-September) alone registering nearly 8 per cent surplus precipitation in both years. This year, the prognosis isn’t great due to an El Niño, expected to return after a strong event from around June 2023 to April 2024. Global models indicate a weak-to-moderate El Niño developing in the current monsoon season. The India Meteorological Department has already forecast a below-normal monsoon, with overall rainfall at 90 per cent of LPA for the four-month season.

But the hit to agriculture may not come in the kharif crop season, whose plantings have just about commenced and will pick up as the monsoon advances. The real impact might be during the rabi (winter-spring) season, with strong-to-very strong El Niño conditions projected to emerge through November-January. El Niño is known to not only suppress the monsoon rainfall but also lead to warmer and shorter winters in India. If its intensity is relatively mild during the monsoon months and peaks after November, the rabi crops are the ones that will bear the brunt. The same goes for fertilisers, where the stocks seem reasonably comfortable to meet the requirements of the kharif season. The effects of the supply shock from the ongoing West Asia conflict and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may be felt only in rabi. This applies even to food inflation, which has not spiralled so far (unlike energy, metals or industrial raw materials), thanks to record 2025-26 crop production levels both in India and globally.

India should turn the potential double whammy of rain and fertiliser shortfalls into an opportunity. The country imported an all-time-high 16.9 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses the previous fiscal. The Narendra Modi government must work towards making 2026 India’s year of millets, pulses and oilseeds, which also consume less water and fertilisers — especially urea (nitrogen) — than rice, wheat or sugarcane. Indian farmers respond well to price signals. They will grow these crops once assured of minimum support prices (MSP), either through direct government procurement or payment of difference over open market rates. Such MSP assurance should, however, be conditional upon cost/market-driven pricing of water and fertilisers, which will promote efficient use of these scarce resources.

Overall Analysis

This editorial examines the possible challenges facing Indian agriculture due to a predicted weak monsoon and potential fertiliser shortages, but instead of presenting a pessimistic outlook, it argues that the situation can become an opportunity for long-term agricultural reform.

The article begins with factual and data-driven language, highlighting the strong performance of Indian agriculture in the previous two years due to favourable monsoon conditions. By contrasting past success with the current forecast of an El Niño-induced weak monsoon, the writer establishes a sense of caution. The use of statistics and meteorological projections lends credibility and objectivity to the argument.

The editorial then explains that the immediate impact may not be felt during the kharif season but during the rabi season when stronger El Niño conditions could result in warmer winters and lower water availability. The author carefully connects climate concerns with fertiliser supply disruptions arising from geopolitical tensions in West Asia. This creates the image of a “double whammy”—two simultaneous risks threatening agricultural production.

However, the central message of the editorial is not about crisis but adaptation. The writer argues that India should use these challenges to shift agricultural priorities towards pulses, oilseeds, and millets. These crops require less water and fertiliser than resource-intensive crops such as rice, wheat, and sugarcane. The editorial presents this transition as both an economic and environmental necessity.

In the concluding section, the language becomes more policy-oriented. The author advocates providing farmers with assured Minimum Support Prices (MSP) to encourage cultivation of these crops, while also introducing market-based pricing of water and fertilisers to discourage wasteful consumption. The overall argument is that short-term adversity can become a catalyst for sustainable agricultural reform if the government adopts the right incentives.

Important Vocabulary (5)

1. Prognosis – a forecast or prediction about future developments.
2. Brunt – the main force or impact of something unpleasant.
3. Whammy – a serious problem or setback; “double whammy” means two difficulties occurring together.
4. Assured – guaranteed or certain.
5. Scarce – limited in availability; difficult to obtain.

Conclusion & Tone

The editorial argues that India should not merely prepare for the risks of a weak monsoon and fertiliser shortages but should use the situation to promote a transition towards more sustainable and less resource-intensive crops. By combining farmer incentives with efficient resource pricing, the country can reduce import dependence and strengthen agricultural resilience.

Tone: Analytical, pragmatic, and solution-oriented.