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As El Niño looms, guard against food inflation
The southwest monsoon is in serious deficit territory, with cumulative all-India rainfall this season (June-September) till June 22 being 42.8 per cent below the normal average for this period. Significantly, this is even before El Niño’s impact is to really kick in. The deficit for now is being attributed mainly to weak monsoon winds in general. The monsoon arrived three days late over Kerala on June 4. After some initial progress, the onset pulse weakened, with stronger northwesterly dry winds suppressing the incoming monsoon currents and no active eastward-moving Madden-Julian Oscillation system carrying clouds and moisture. The monsoon, in fact, made no progress between June 15 and June 21, before showing signs of revival on Monday.
Rainfall being deficient in June isn’t a good augury, as most global climate agencies are forecasting the current El Niño to intensify into a “strong” event towards August-September and “very strong” over October-January. In other words, one must expect no turnaround from a bad start and brace for the worst as El Niño gathers momentum. The last two strong-to-very strong El Niño events in 2023-24 and 2015-16 produced drought years. 2026-27 could turn out no different. The only consolation is that it comes after two consecutive good agriculture years: 2024-25 and 2025-26 saw farmers harvest bumper crops both in India and globally, with record outputs of wheat, rice, maize, sugar and even soyabean, rapeseed and palm oil. Not surprisingly, international food prices haven’t followed the course of crude petroleum, natural gas, coal, fertilisers and metals. Their prices have all surged following the US-Israel war on Iran, whereas the abundant stocks from all-time-high production have prevented food inflation spikes — at least so far.
Overall Analysis
This editorial highlights the growing concern over a weak southwest monsoon and the potential economic consequences of a strengthening El Niño phenomenon. The central argument is that India must prepare for the possibility of reduced agricultural output and rising food prices if rainfall deficiencies persist.
The article begins by presenting data on the severe rainfall deficit, emphasizing that the monsoon season has started poorly. The author uses meteorological explanations—such as weak monsoon winds and the absence of favorable atmospheric systems—to show that the rainfall shortage is not accidental but linked to broader climatic conditions. This scientific approach lends credibility and urgency to the discussion.
The editorial then shifts its focus to El Niño, warning that the climate event is expected to intensify in the coming months. The phrase “brace for the worst” reflects the author’s concern that the current rainfall deficit may deepen rather than improve. By referring to previous strong El Niño years that resulted in droughts, the writer uses historical evidence to support the possibility of a difficult agricultural season ahead.
However, the piece avoids excessive pessimism by identifying one positive factor: the strong agricultural performance of the previous two years. Record harvests have created substantial food stocks both in India and globally. This abundance has acted as a buffer against inflation, even as global prices of fuel, fertilisers, metals, and energy commodities have risen sharply due to geopolitical tensions.
The overall language is analytical and cautionary. The author seeks to alert policymakers and readers that while food inflation has remained under control so far, worsening weather conditions could quickly alter the situation. The editorial implicitly calls for proactive planning, stock management, and inflation-control measures before the full impact of El Niño becomes visible.
Important Vocabulary (5)
- Deficit – A shortage or amount by which something falls below the required level.
- Augury – A sign or indication of what may happen in the future.
- Intensify – To become stronger or more severe.
- Bumper Crops – Exceptionally large and successful agricultural harvests.
- Abundant – Existing in large quantities; plentiful.
Conclusion & Tone
The editorial warns that a weak monsoon combined with a strengthening El Niño could threaten agricultural production and trigger food inflation. While healthy food stocks provide temporary relief, policymakers must remain vigilant and prepare for potential disruptions in the months ahead.
Tone: Analytical, cautionary, and forward-looking.
