El Niño and Iran sharpen India’s food prices challenge

The southwest monsoon was 39.8 per cent below normal in June, with the all-India average rainfall of 99.5 mm the fifth lowest recorded for that month after 2014, 2009, 1926 and 1905. This month, which coincides with the peak plantings of the kharif crop, has been better so far. Not only has the cumulative rainfall deficit for the season (June-September) narrowed to 24.1 per cent as on July 5, the monsoon has advanced to cover roughly 95 per cent of the country’s area. That should, in turn, help boost kharif sowing acreages, which were overall 22.7 per cent lower compared to last year’s coverage till June 25. The lag was even more for oilseeds (53.3 per cent), pulses (30.5 per cent) and cotton (34.6 per cent). Those gaps can potentially close with the monsoon’s revival from June 30.

But the outlook, on the whole, is still not great. The India Meteorological Department has forecast average rainfall over the country for July, too, to “most likely to be below normal”. Worse, the dreaded El Niño is in a “moderate” phase now, while predicted to intensify into a “strong” event during the second half of the monsoon season and turn “very strong” over October-January. The impact wouldn’t be limited to the monsoon rainfall and the kharif crops grown during this season. Since El Niño is known to suppress rainfall and also raise temperatures, it could result in a relatively short and warm winter, affecting the upcoming rabi season crops like wheat, mustard, chana, masoor and potato as well. The last “strong” El Niño event of 2023-24 led to annual retail food inflation averaging over 8.5 per cent between July 2023 and December 2024. Without proactive supply-side management, there is every risk of a repeat of that protracted episode of elevated food prices.

India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses the previous fiscal. El Niño — which has overtaken Iran as the No 1 risk factor for the Indian economy today — will make further imports inevitable. While keeping the import window open, the government must ensure minimum support prices for pulses, oilseeds, millets and cotton through payment of the difference over open market rates. It will incentivise farmers to cultivate these crops, instead of water-intensive rice, wheat and sugarcane. The year 2026-27 will also test the flagship crop insurance (PMFBY) and rural employment (VB-G RAM G) schemes. Their implementation on the ground matters as much as the supply-side measures to control food inflation.

Overall Analysis

The editorial examines the growing threat to India’s food security and inflation arising from two interconnected factors—an erratic monsoon influenced by El Niño and geopolitical tensions involving Iran. It argues that while the revival of monsoon rains in early July has offered temporary relief, the broader outlook remains uncertain, demanding proactive government intervention rather than reactive crisis management.

The editorial begins by presenting rainfall data to establish the seriousness of the situation. Although June witnessed one of the weakest monsoons in recent history, the improvement in rainfall during early July has narrowed the seasonal deficit and accelerated the progress of kharif sowing. However, the author cautions readers against drawing premature optimism, noting that delayed sowing of major crops such as pulses, oilseeds, and cotton may still have long-term consequences.

The discussion then shifts to the larger climatic threat posed by El Niño. The author explains that its impact extends beyond the current kharif season, potentially affecting the upcoming rabi crops through reduced rainfall and higher temperatures. By referring to the inflationary experience during the 2023-24 El Niño episode, the editorial highlights that climate change is no longer merely an environmental concern but a significant economic challenge capable of sustaining high food inflation for prolonged periods.

The final section broadens the analysis by linking climate risks with India’s import dependence. The editorial argues that lower domestic production could force India to increase imports of edible oils and pulses, especially amid geopolitical uncertainties involving Iran that could disrupt global supply chains and raise import costs. Rather than relying solely on imports, the author recommends strengthening domestic agriculture through assured minimum support prices for pulses, oilseeds, millets, and cotton. Such incentives would encourage farmers to diversify away from water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane, improving both food security and climate resilience. The editorial also stresses the importance of effective implementation of crop insurance and rural employment schemes to protect farmers against climatic shocks.

Overall, the editorial combines meteorological data, economic reasoning, and policy recommendations to argue that climate resilience, agricultural diversification, and efficient government support are essential to contain future food inflation and safeguard India’s economy.

Important Vocabulary (5)

1. Inevitable – Certain to happen; unavoidable.
2. Proactive – Taking action in advance to prevent problems rather than reacting later.
3. Protracted – Continuing for a long time; prolonged.
4. Incentivise – To encourage or motivate someone through rewards or benefits.
5. Flagship – The most important or leading programme, policy, or initiative.

Conclusion & Tone

The editorial concludes that India cannot depend solely on favourable weather or increased imports to manage food inflation. It calls for a long-term strategy centred on climate-resilient agriculture, crop diversification, timely government support, and effective implementation of welfare schemes. Such measures are essential to reduce vulnerability to climatic disruptions and external geopolitical shocks.

Tone: Analytical, cautionary, data-driven, and policy-oriented.