Monsoon has revived, but keep an eye on weather

Cumulative rainfall deficiency in the current southwest monsoon season (June-September) has reduced to 11.5 per cent, from 38 per cent in June and 22.8 per cent till July 15. The interesting part about this seeming turnaround is that the dreaded El Niño was only in a weak-to-moderate phase in June. Yet, not a single rain-bearing low-pressure system (LPS) was formed, as against a normal average of three stretching over 11 days for that month. July, by contrast, not only saw four LPSs develop (normal is three). It also recorded 24 LPS-active days (normal: 14). As a result, despite El Niño becoming a moderate-to-strong event, the month registered a 2.4 per cent all-India rainfall surplus. The monsoon situation thus, far from worsening (the India Meteorological Department had predicted below-normal precipitation for July), has revived.

That revival has also helped narrow the overall gap in progressive area sown under kharif crops from 20.8 per cent till the first week of July to 2.9 per cent at month-end. The rains post mid-July have boosted late plantings, including pulses, soyabean, sesamum and cotton, that were significantly lagging behind. Moreover, they have been lifesaving for the already sown crops facing moisture stress from the monsoon’s prolonged break. But for the recent showers, even those crops would have suffered stunted vegetative growth. In short, kharif hasn’t been the unmitigated disaster that many were fearing after a dry June and amid concerns over an intensifying El Niño. For now, things look manageable. Even in fertilisers, the shortages haven’t been dire. Production and imports of urea have, in fact, been higher in April-June 2026 over April-June 2025.

Overall Analysis

The editorial takes a balanced and cautiously optimistic view of India’s monsoon situation. It begins with statistical evidence to show that the monsoon, which appeared to be heading towards a serious deficit after a weak June, has recovered significantly. The rainfall deficiency has fallen from 38% in June to 11.5%, mainly because July witnessed an unusually high number of low-pressure systems (LPSs) and more active monsoon days.

A key feature of the editorial is the contrast between June and July. June experienced an absence of rain-bearing systems despite El Niño being relatively weak, while July performed better even though El Niño had strengthened. This comparison challenges the assumption that El Niño alone can accurately predict the performance of the Indian monsoon. The author therefore presents weather as a complex and dynamic phenomenon, rather than something governed by a single factor.

The editorial then connects rainfall with its direct impact on agriculture. The improvement in rainfall has reduced the gap in kharif sowing considerably. Crops such as pulses, soyabean, sesamum and cotton, which had been lagging, benefited from late rains. The phrase “lifesaving for the already sown crops” highlights the importance of rainfall in preventing moisture stress and poor crop growth.

The author also uses a corrective approach by challenging the earlier pessimism surrounding the monsoon. The phrase “unmitigated disaster” suggests that the situation was feared to be much worse than it actually turned out to be. However, the author does not become overly optimistic. The closing line — “For now, things look manageable” — deliberately introduces caution. The title itself, “but keep an eye on weather”, reinforces this message: the immediate situation has improved, but weather conditions remain uncertain and require continuous monitoring.

From a language perspective, the editorial effectively combines statistics, comparison, cause-and-effect reasoning and cautious assessment. Technical terms are used where necessary, but the overall argument remains accessible. The movement of the argument is clear: poor June → stronger July → improved rainfall → better crop prospects → situation manageable but uncertain.

🔑 Important Vocabulary — 5

1. Deficiency – a shortage; an amount by which something is less than the required or expected level.
2. Turnaround – a significant change from a bad situation to an improved one.
3. Precipitation – water that falls from the atmosphere, especially rain, snow or hail.
4. Moisture stress – a condition in which plants do not receive enough water for healthy growth.
5. Unmitigated – complete or not reduced/lessened by anything; “unmitigated disaster” means a disaster with no positive or relieving aspect.

Conclusion & Tone

The editorial concludes that the Indian monsoon has recovered sufficiently to ease immediate concerns about kharif agriculture, but it is too early to become complacent. The improved rainfall has helped crops and reduced the sowing deficit, yet changing weather patterns and the influence of El Niño require continued observation.

Tone: Analytical, cautiously optimistic, evidence-based and reassuring, with an underlying note of caution.