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US, Iran and the missing endgame
In contrast to the early weeks of the war in West Asia, when the US was pressing for a deal and Iran was playing hardball, Tehran has in recent days emerged as the actor that is more eager for talks. After threatening to “annihilate” Iran in his speech at last week’s UN General Assembly session, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day roadmap to end hostilities. With the US midterms approaching, Trump is not allowing Tehran, which is itself basing much of its calculations on November, to use the elections as leverage against him. Another source of leverage for Iran also appears to be declining: The Strait of Hormuz.
The closure of the Strait and the squeezing of commercial flows through the waterway has been Iran’s most potent economic weapon against a superior military power. Tracking data, however, reveals that crude exports from West Asia rebounded in September. Shipments through the Strait and alternative routes have been carrying just under 80 per cent of their prewar flows as of last week, the highest since February. Saudi Arabia has repaired the East-West pipeline — a lifeline that allows its crude to bypass Hormuz — which was damaged by a drone strike, and has reportedly resumed Red Sea oil exports. Iran, on the other hand, has been unable to export crude through Hormuz due to the US counterblockade, and the Iranian oil that lies outside the blockade for sale is bound to run out sooner or later. The weakening of Iran’s chokehold and the battering of its economy due to a wave of new US sanctions, dubbed Operation Economic Outcast, explain Tehran’s sudden willingness to cut a deal.
Overall Analysis
The editorial examines the changing dynamics between the US and Iran during the West Asia conflict, focusing on why Iran appears increasingly willing to negotiate while the US remains unwilling to accept its proposed roadmap. The title, “the missing endgame,” suggests that although the conflict has involved military and economic pressure, there is still uncertainty about how it will ultimately be resolved.
The opening paragraph uses contrast as its primary technique. The author compares the “early weeks of the war”, when the US was pushing for negotiations and Iran was “playing hardball”, with the current situation, where Iran appears more interested in talks. The idiom “playing hardball” means adopting a tough, uncompromising approach. This reversal immediately establishes the editorial’s central theme: the balance of negotiating power appears to be changing.
The writer then introduces the role of political timing. The reference to the US midterm elections shows how domestic politics can influence international negotiations. The phrase “use the elections as leverage” is especially important: “leverage” means an advantage or source of influence that can be used to achieve a desired outcome.
The first paragraph ends by identifying another source of Iranian leverage — the Strait of Hormuz — and prepares the reader for the economic analysis that follows.
The second paragraph shifts from diplomacy to economic and strategic pressure. The Strait of Hormuz is described as Iran’s “most potent economic weapon”, a metaphor that presents control over the waterway as a strategic instrument. The writer then uses shipping and crude-export data to demonstrate that this leverage may be weakening.
The paragraph contains several examples of cause-and-effect reasoning. Saudi Arabia’s repaired pipeline allows it to bypass Hormuz, while alternative routes have helped restore a significant portion of oil flows. In contrast, Iran faces restrictions on its own crude exports. The repeated use of contrast — Saudi Arabia versus Iran, exports rebounding versus exports being blocked — strengthens the explanation of why Iran’s bargaining position may have changed.
The phrase “chokehold” is another vivid metaphor. It describes Iran’s ability to restrict the flow of oil through the Strait as though it were physically restricting someone’s breathing. Similarly, “battering of its economy” presents sanctions and economic pressure as a physical assault. Such imagery makes complicated geopolitical and economic developments easier for the reader to visualise.
The editorial ultimately connects military pressure, economic sanctions, oil exports and diplomacy. Its central reasoning is that Iran’s willingness to negotiate can be understood partly through the weakening of its economic leverage and increasing pressure on its economy.
Important Vocabulary – 5
- Hardball – an uncompromising or aggressively tough approach to negotiation or competition.
- Leverage – an advantage or influence that can be used to achieve a desired result.
- Potent – very powerful or effective.
- Rebounded – recovered or increased after falling or declining.
- Chokehold – a powerful means of restricting or controlling something; literally, a grip that restricts breathing.
Conclusion & Tone
The editorial suggests that the changing dynamics of the conflict have weakened some of Iran’s economic bargaining tools, particularly its ability to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This may help explain Tehran’s greater willingness to negotiate. However, the title points to the larger unresolved question: what political and diplomatic outcome will ultimately bring the conflict to an end?
Tone: Analytical, strategic, cautious and geopolitical.
Language Takeaway: The editorial is particularly useful for learning how contrast and metaphor can simplify complex international relations. Expressions such as “playing hardball,” “use as leverage,” “economic weapon,” “chokehold,” and “battering of its economy” make abstract geopolitical concepts concrete and easier to understand.
